I am an Associate Professor at West Point’s Department of Systems Engineering and co-director of the British Election Study.
My research focuses on improving measurement and causal inference in social science. Substantively I study electoral behavior, online citizen engagement, and measuring public opinion.
I have published 26 articles in peer reviewed journals including the American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science, and the Journal of Politics. I also co-authored Electoral Shocks: The Volatile Voter in a Turbulent World with Oxford University Press (available open access).
DPhil in Sociology, 2010-2014
Nuffield College, University of Oxford
MSc in Sociology, 2009-2010
St Cross College, University of Oxford
BA in Politics, Philosophy, and Economics, 2006-2009
St Anne's College, University of Oxford
Lots of studies use weather as an instrumental variable, but the core assumption of IV implies that an instrument should only affect one variable. I develop a full methodology for how to find and review possible exclusion restriction violations.
Do election results change because people switch parties or because different people show up to the polls? Across 104 election pairs, this papers shows that vote switching is the overwhelming driver of electoral change.
MPs often cited opinion in their constituencies to justify their votes on Brexit. Our analysis shows MPs Brexit stance made a minimal difference to incumbent success. A survey experiment on MPs shows that MPs have broadly accurate perceptions of this minimal impact.